Does sacking a manager improve Premier League survival chances?

Everton manager Sean Dyche is under pressure with his pointless side sat bottom of the Premier League – but would parting ways improve the club’s chances of survival?

The Toffees have surrendered two-goal advantages in back-to-back Premier League games and crashed out of the Carabao Cup to newly-promoted Southampton on penalties on Tuesday.

However, teams appear to have reigned back the permanent managerial changes since there were a record-breaking 14 mid-season departures in 2022/23 – with only four managers leaving last season and not one change this term.

Does axing manager boost survival chances?

Sky Sports scoured the archives to document every instance when a Premier League team has sacked a manager while in the relegation zone, according to positions listed on Transfermarkt, and the eventual outcome, to uncover whether it improves clubs’ chances of survival.

In total, only 33 of 78 clubs ended up avoiding the drop after axing their manager in the drop zone – which equates to 42 per cent. That means clubs still have a 58-per-cent chance of relegation after axing a manager midseason.

All figures only include the first managerial change while in the relegation zone during respective seasons.

Of course, there are several other factors to consider, such as the position of the club within the relegation zone and what period of the season the managerial change occurred.

Starting with position – unsurprisingly, clubs are far better off axing managers before they hit rock bottom. Since 1995/96, when the league was trimmed to 20 clubs, teams changing manager when sat in 18th have a survival rate of 54 per cent, while teams in 19th have a 57-per-cent chance.

However, that ratio plummets to just 15 per cent for teams axing their manager when sat bottom of the table.

What about time period? Well, the same mantra appears here, too: strike early. The table below highlights how survival rates remain largely positive until the turn of the calendar year.

After December, only three out of 24 clubs have survived after parting ways with a manager while in the drop zone since 1992/93: Southampton (Ian Branfoot) in 1993/94, Aston Villa (Paul Lambert) in 2014/15 and Everton (Frank Lampard) in 2022/23.

Clubs appear to know this, with the majority of changes occurring between October and December.

The chart below clearly visualises how the survival rate dips over the course of a season – with no club ever surviving after axing a manager while in the bottom three beyond the month of February.

The table below merges both position and time into one table since 1995/96 and emphasises the clear correlation between survival and axing a manager early while in 18th or 19th place – but no club has retained top-flight status after sacking a manager while rock bottom after the month of October.

Winners and losers

Tottenham achieved the biggest bounce in history after they sacked Juande Ramos in October 2008, hoisting from rock bottom to finish the season in eighth spot under Harry Redknapp.

Several teams also enjoyed huge bounces in 2017/18, with Everton rising 10 places after axing Ronald Koeman.

In terms of clubs’ all-time success with the manager bounce during precarious times, Everton have previously retained their unbroken top-flight status all four times after axing a manager while in the relegation zone.

In contrast, Nottingham Forest sacked Frank Clark in 1996/97 and Dave Bassett in 1998/99 while in the bottom three – suffering relegation both times.

In summary, the chances of avoiding the drop following a managerial change after the turn of the year stands at just 13 per cent – regardless of position. In addition to acting early, clubs should make managerial changes before hitting rock bottom.