Our betting expert Jones Knows provides his insight as he analyses the four FA Cup quarter-finals and is keen on backing the all-Premier League ties to go all the way to penalties.
Fulham vs Crystal Palace, Saturday 12.15pm
Backing the draw in quarter-finals of cup competitions is always a betting strategy worth implementing when the time is right. As an example, 44 per cent of all European Championship quarter-finals have ended as draws from a 32-game sample size with three of the four 2024 last-eight showdowns ending in stalemate. When jeopardy increases, the prospect of games becoming cagey with both teams setting out in a must-not-lose focus rather than taking risks to win the game does tend to play out.
All this evidence suggests some potential cagey quarter-final games could play out this weekend with the three all-Premier League ties between Fulham and Crystal Palace, Brighton vs Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth vs Manchester City offering big value for the matches to end as a draw.
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Speaking on the latest episode of ‘One on One’, Marco Silva says he is happy at Fulham but is also ambitious and wants to continue to help the club progress. Watch the extended interview on YouTube or it’s also available as a podcast.
We’ve got two very well-organised and in-form teams matching up here. Both know how to defend, too. Since the turn of the year only Arsenal and Liverpool have a better expected goals against than Fulham and Crystal Palace. Oliver Glasner’s side haven’t even conceded a goal away from home in 549 minutes. It’s got draw written all over this one at 23/10 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 (Crystal Palace to win on penalties) | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Either team to win on penalties (5/1 with Sky Bet)
Brighton vs Nottingham Forest, Saturday 5.15pm
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Highlights from the Premier League match between Nottingham Forest and Brighton.
It shows you how much the betting markets really don’t rate this Nottingham Forest team when they are priced up at 7/4 with Sky Bet to qualify for the semi-finals. This is a team that beat the opposition in question 7-0 the last time they met. Of course, you should never trust one piece of form in isolation but it’s hard to ignore that argument no matter how simplistic that sounds.
Forest are being underrated, that’s clear.
This fixture for some reason does tend to produce fireworks when it comes to cards. In the last four meetings there have been 28 yellow cards shown and two red cards flashed. There is lots at stake so I’m anticipating a high card count and the Evens on offer for 50+ booking points stands a cracking chance, as does the draw.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 (Nottingham Forest to win on penalties) | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Either team to win on penalties (6/1 with Sky Bet)
Preston vs Aston Villa, Sunday 1.30pm
Deepdale will be packed to the rafters, hoping to witness a cup shock. But in reality, it’s hard to foresee one occurring.
In 28 FA Cup fifth round or quarter-final games involving Manchester City, Manchester United, Arsenal, Liverpool and Chelsea over the past seven seasons – so, elite teams – those teams have won 26 of those matches in normal time. The only two occasions a so-called shock has happened was when Leicester beat Chelsea and Manchester United, although that was the high-flying version of the Foxes who went onto win the cup outright.
This is a good indicator to showcase the elite teams are very reliable from a betting perspective at this stage of the competition where Wembley and the chance of winning the trophy are in sight.
Also, Preston could have up to five first-team players missing too. Kaine Kesler-Hayden (ineligible to face parent club), Ryan Porteous (cup tied), Sam Greenwood and Ryan Ledson (both suspended) are out and it’s unclear what the situation is with Milutin Osmajic after he was charged by the FA for alleged racist comments against Burnley.
Villa to win and under 3.5 goals at 11/10 with Sky Bet looks the smart play.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1
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Highlights of the Sky Bet Championship match between Preston North End and Portsmouth.
Bournemouth vs Manchester City, Sunday 4pm
I’ve got a bit of a rule when analysing games from a result perspective and trying to formulate a prediction: if once I’ve run all my key data and added my own views into the mix and that process takes longer than 30 minutes to come to a conclusive view on whether the prices are right, it means the draw has to be a runner.
It is here.
I wanted to try and back Bournemouth outright but they are shorter than what I’d expect at Evens to qualify considering they are without Dean Huijsen and Milos Kerkez – two of their mainstays at the back who are missing due to suspension.
Plus, the Cherries have annoyed me of late with their inability to do the basics right, neglecting game management in the defeat to Tottenham before showing an worrying inability to defend set-pieces against Brentford. I can’t trust them. I can’t trust Manchester City. So, the draw it is at 11/4 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 (Bournemouth to win on penalties) | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Either team to win on penalties (13/2 with Sky Bet)
Jones Knows’ best bets..
- 1pt on Fulham vs Crystal Palace to go to penalties (5/1 with Sky Bet)
- 1pt on Brighton vs Nottingham Forest to go to penalties (5/1 with Sky Bet)
- 1pt on Bournemouth vs Man City to go to penalties (5/1 with Sky Bet)
- 0.5pts on Fulham vs Crystal Palace, Brighton vs Nottingham Forest & Bournemouth vs Man City all to go to penalties (314/1 with Sky Bet)